6122 Fawcett Ave, Tacoma, WA 98408 — Fix-and-Flip Feasibility Analysis

Analysis date: 2026-07-22 | Prepared by DealScout | NWMLS #2559013 | Data sources: Zillow + Redfin + Pierce County ATIP (APN 6690200750), three-source verification, queried 2026-07-22

Summary (30-second version)

1. Property Overview

2. The Full Story of This House (plain-English timeline)

One-sentence version: an older couple bought the house in 1990 for $67,500, lived in it for 36 years, kept the big-ticket items maintained and updated along the way; now the interior is dated, they're moving on, and they've listed it at $400k — a clean, unhurried, no-drama sale.

3. Where the ARV Lands: Around $540k (backed three ways — 4 county-verified sales + a flip case + the county assessment)

98408 had 22 sales in the last 3 months of 3+ bed, ≥1,800 sqft houses (Redfin filter); every core comp was checked against county records for sale date and authenticity:

Background references (not anchors): 6134 S D St $450k (3/1, 1,936 sqft, sold 6/4, "beautifully updated", 3 blocks away, Redfin, area breakdown unverified); 5631 S K St $675k (5 bed, 2,530 sqft, likely a major rebuild/new construction, unverified — treated only as the ceiling); 5642 S Thompson $483k (3/2, 2.2k sqft, from Zillow's comp strip, date unverified).

ARV derivation: two direct anchors among renovated finished product — 706 S 58th (nearly identical area) at $549,999 and 6809 Sheridan at $550,000; plus the flip product 5907 Yakima (22% smaller above grade) at $539,900. Renovated, the subject would be in the area's largest tier (2,483 above grade + 884 basement + 768 shop + solar), but weak schools (high school 1/10) plus the diminishing $/sqft of larger houses cap the upside, and 98408 currently has no $600k sale precedent to support a higher price. Three corroborating data points: county assessment $588,900, Zestimate $542,400, Zestimate range top $586k. We set the ARV baseline = $540,000 (conservative, slightly below the two anchors; pessimistic $515k = school/large-house discount fully applied; optimistic $565k = shop/solar/size premium fully realized).

4. The Numbers, Worked Through

The model uses sample hard money loan terms (not any real loan quote): purchase loan at 76% LTV / rehab loan at 100% / 10% annual interest / 1 point origination, plus 6.5% selling costs + $600/mo × 6 months + $5k miscellaneous. Rehab is set at the $110k baseline (≈$44/sqft × 2,483 above grade: whole-house flooring/paint + kitchen + 3 baths + fixtures, hardware, and misc; not having to touch the big-ticket items is this house's greatest strength — heat pump / windows / plumbing & electrical / roof are all stated as updated in the listing; but it's a 1931 house with no inspection yet, so the high case is kept at $140k).

5. Sensitivity Matrix (holding the purchase at the $404,444 asking price)

How to read it: at the asking price, eight of the nine cells lose money, and the only cell that doesn't is barely working for free. The problem here isn't that the house is bad — it's that the house is too good (big-ticket items all replaced + Conventional financing eligible), so good that owner-occupants will pay far more than any investor can. A flip's profit comes from the discount on houses "nobody else dares to buy or is able to buy" — and this house carries no such discount.

6. Hands-On Calculator: Drag Any Number, Profit Updates Instantly

Every variable below is draggable — not just the three core numbers (price / rehab / ARV): loan-to-value (LTV), annual rate, hold length, origination points, selling costs, monthly holding cost and miscellaneous are all adjustable, and the numbers recompute in real time. Defaults are the sample hard-money terms above.

7. Qualitative Read: Why This Is One to Monitor — Not Pursue, Not Dismiss

• Plus: the house itself has great bones — heat pump (with A/C) 5 years old, windows replaced, copper plumbing, Romex, 15-year roof, solar paid off; the rehab is a pure cosmetic refresh — short timeline, low overrun risk, exactly the kind of job a light-rehab crew is best suited for
• Plus: 768 sqft detached shop + alley access + DADU upside — a photogenic differentiator at resale; 4 parking spots is a scarce commodity on this block
• Plus: a clean seller — 36 years owner-occupied, no mortgage pressure (bought for $67,500 in 1990), taxes paid, not a foreclosure or contested estate; if a deal comes together, the transaction should hold no surprises
• Minus (fatal): the buyer pool is the entire market — Conventional-financeable + livable condition = owner-occupants bid directly. $404k isn't expensive to an owner-occupant (6129 S Park, an original-condition 4/1 a size down, one street over, still sold for $370k); it will most likely be taken at around $400k
• Minus: 2 days on market, attention-grabbing repeating-digit pricing, top 10% in views — the agent's playbook is to drive a bidding war; a lowball offer right now is basically just making another offer look good
• Minus: the $50k net reference line implies 79% of ask — a very deep discount, and the counterparty isn't a bank rushing to clear its books but a long-term owner with no need for cash
• Risk memo: for a 1931 house, the inspection must cover — foundation/structure (partial-slope terracing), basement moisture, roof condition behind the solar panels, and how much of the "copper plumbing / Romex" update actually covers (it may be partial); plus the condition of the stone-step retaining wall

8. What This Means for Investors

Three price reference lines (at ARV $540k, rehab $110k baseline): break-even ≈$366,000 (90% of ask); $30k profit ≈$337,000 (83% of ask); $50k net ≈$318,000 (79% of ask).

Playing it forward: if this wave of owner-occupant interest doesn't convert (say the inspection scares buyers off, or financing falls through), then even a cut to $370–380k in 30–45 days still loses money for a flip investor ($370k loses about $4k, $380k about $15k; break-even is $366k); only below $340k does the deal start to pencil (net at a $340k purchase: about $27k at baseline; about $50k with rehab unchanged + optimistic ARV; up to about $71k if rehab can also be squeezed to the $90k tier).

Precondition to entering: first confirm the big-ticket items at inspection (roof condition, how much of the plumbing & electrical was updated, foundation / terraced retaining wall, basement moisture) — the $110k rehab assumption rests entirely on seller statements; if the inspection pushes it to the $140k tier, even a $340k purchase turns into a loss.

9. One-Sentence Summary (share-ready)

Model: sample hard money loan terms (76% / 100% / 10% / 1%, not a real quote) + 6.5% selling costs + $600/mo holding + $5k misc + 6-month cycle; the model was cross-checked against a previously verified case (Python recomputation passed 2026-07-22).
Data verification (2026-07-22): list price / beds & baths / size = Zillow ↔ Redfin two-source match; area breakdown (2,483 above grade + 884 unfinished basement), year built 1931 / remodel 1994, owner identity, tax status = adjudicated by Pierce County ATIP (APN 6690200750); the 1990 purchase at $67,500 = Redfin Sale History (outside the county window, single source); comp sale dates and prices = verified one by one against county ATIP excise records (706 S 58th #4693590, 6809 Sheridan #4690126, 110 S 62nd #4693841, 6129 S Park #4694013, 5907 Yakima acquisition #4679833).
Unverified items: years and coverage of the roof / heat pump / plumbing & electrical updates (seller statements, inspection required); the exact resale date of 5907 Yakima (not yet in the county system; within Redfin's sold-3mo window); area breakdowns for 5631 S K St ($675k) and 6134 S D St; DADU feasibility.
Review-and-correction log (independent second review 2026-07-22; core numbers, facts, and all 12 source links verified, 2 corrections made): ① Section 8's "$340k optimistic $71k" conflated scenarios — $71k requires the doubly optimistic "rehab $90k + ARV $565k"; with rehab held at baseline the optimistic figure is $50k — corrected; ② "$370–380k merely breaks even" was inaccurate — it actually loses $4k–15k (break-even $366k) — corrected. Also added per review suggestions: an inspection precondition on the reference lines; a note that county records show 1.75 baths for 706 S 58th vs the MLS figure; tax wording tightened to "first half paid". The rehab-tier judgment for 706 S 58th (from photos) and the building details for 6129 S Park were not independently re-reviewed — flagged as open items that do not change the conclusion.
Source index: Zillow listing · Redfin listing · county ATIP subject summary / building / sales / taxes · Redfin 98408 sold-3mo filter · comp county records: 706 S 58th · 6809 Sheridan · 110 S 62nd · 6129 S Park · 5907 Yakima.
This is a DealScout sample report (sanitized): a real analysis based on public data with client identity and offer-strategy information removed; figures are estimates and do not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice; analysis dated 2026-07-22 — listing status may have changed since.